Master Builders Australia's 2024 industry forecasts are out now, covering the full 5-year Housing Accord period to 2028-29. With inflation nearing targets and expected interest rate drops, the investment market looks favourable over the medium-term. Government housing measures aim to boost supply, yet challenges like workforce shortages and industrial relations environment threaten to undermine these efforts. These forecasts encompass residential, commercial, and civil construction sectors, providing vital insights for the future of the industry. Don't miss out! Purchase your discounted forecasts today and stay ahead in the evolving construction landscape. 

View and purchase all forecasts here. Exclusive to MBA members: 20% off when you use the code MH5SF5C6 at the checkout.

What are the forecasts telling us?

• 2023-2024 continues to pose a difficult economic environment off the back of rising inflation and high interest rates.

• There’s room for optimism over the forecast period that inflation is getting under control and closing in on the 2-3% RBA target range. This will likely see interest rates start to come down over the next couple of years.

• The most likely scenario is for the economy over the medium term to stabilise and rebalance.

• Overall industry outlook is then to see signs of more favourable investment appetite.

• The industry outlook is expected to improve, with the potential for increased investment appetite, particularly due to the impact of several federal government housing initiatives.
  • These initiatives, such as the Housing Australia Future Fund, creation of Housing Australia, support for build-to-rent, and additional funding for social and affordable housing, are likely to stimulate residential construction activity.
     
• The forecasts have also factored in conservative modelling around the impact of some industrial relations changes and the impact of labour shortages on new home building.
   
• We have found that, in each state and territory, we will fall short of the housing target even with positive outlooks on the horizon.

• The full effect of the Federal Government’s Closing Loopholes Bills, CFMEU pattern bargaining arrangements currently being negotiated in several states, and the full extent of labour shortages have not been modelled. 
  • This is due to the availability of the information. E.g. regulations to the Bills have yet to be released and EBA negoations have not been finalised.
     
• So, we do expect that without additional policies, especially at a state/territory level these forecasts are on the optimistic side.

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